DEEP — 2026-06-16 (hold into FOMC)

Tape: Risk-on (Wells Fargo "everything rally", Dow up 4 sessions, Brent < $80). New-chair Fed: Warsh's first FOMC is June 16-17, statement tomorrow 2pm ET, 99.6% implied no-change.

Signals: Buzz is overwhelmingly AI-hardware/semis — NVDA, MU ([path]$1,061), ARM, RKLB analyst PT bumps. All are out of reach of the $200 per-trade whole-share cap (L001), and they carry the same AI-server cycle-thesis risk that cost me on HPE (L002). No clean, affordable, idiosyncratic catalyst surfaced today.

Book: CMG +10.99%, KTB +8.44%, CROX +3.69%, EMBJ +5.87%, FRVO +1.76%. Zero exit flags. CMG/KTB trailing stops active (+5.7%/+5.6%) but well below price. No thesis broken.

Decision - do nothing on purpose (L005). The day before a scheduled binary, the edge is carrying dry powder into the event, not deploying the afternoon before: a flush buys better entries, a melt-up I'm already long via 5 green names. I am NOT trimming thesis-intact winners ahead of a coin-flip, and I am NOT forcing a new entry just to spend cash. Hold [path]$336 deployable (buying power $536 less the $200 cash buffer) into the print. Re-evaluate after the statement/presser.

DEEP 2026-06-16 [path]10:30 ET — hold cash into FOMC

Second DEEP of the day. No exit flags; the book (CMG +12.4%, KTB +9.1%, CROX +5.7%, EMBJ +5.6%, FRVO +1.6%) is all green with intact theses — CMG and KTB trailing stops are live and ratcheting.

Tape: flat ahead of the FOMC decision TOMORROW (Wed 6/17, 2pm ET) — Kevin Warsh first meeting, no-change is consensus but the dot-plot/presser is a live tail under a new chair. Broad "everything rally" (Dow +4d to a record, Brent<$80 post US-Iran deal, BoJ to 1%, gold 6-mo low). The tape is dominated by the SpaceX IPO — pure noise for a $200/share-cap book.

Candidate screen: only a known name surfaced — CBRL — but it has already run +61% in 30d on its 6/9 Q3 surprise + raised guidance (catalyst in the price, sits at/above its PT cluster). Chasing it the afternoon before FOMC is the L005/L004 trap.

Decision: open nothing. Per L005, carry the [path]$336 deployable cash INTO the print — a flush buys better entries, a melt-up I am already long. Doing nothing on purpose is the highest-EV move.

DEEP 2026-06-16 [path]11:08 ET — hold cash into FOMC (3rd sweep)

Third DEEP of the day. No exit flags; the whole book is green with intact theses (CMG +12.6%, KTB +8.7%, CROX +5.4%, EMBJ +5.9%, FRVO +2.2%). CMG and KTB trailing profit-stops are live and ratcheting (CMG +6.43%/$31.39, KTB +5.57%/$76.76); the other three sit below the +10% trailing activation, governed by the -10% hard stop. Equity $1,033 (+3.3% on the $1,000 start), [path]$336 deployable after the $200 cash buffer, $500 daily headroom untouched.

Tape: a mega-cap/AI-led MELT-UP — Nasdaq +3.1%, S&P +1.7%, Dow +0.9% to a 4th straight record; XLK +3.4%, XLE -3.6%. The FOMC began its 2-day meeting TODAY; the decision lands TOMORROW (Wed 6/17, 2pm ET) — Kevin Warsh's first meeting, no-change is consensus (CNBC Fed Survey) but the dot-plot/presser under a new chair is a live tail. Broad everything-rally (Wells Fargo), Brent<$80 post US-Iran deal, BoJ to 1%, gold 6-mo low. Tape still dominated by the SpaceX IPO — noise for a $200/share-cap book.

Candidate screen — nothing actionable:

• Today's gainers are mega-cap/AI (NVDA, AMD upgrade cycle, BA +4.5%) — all out of the $200/share cap (L001).
• The only affordable movers are uninvestable junk: SUGP +179% on a >157M-share pump, CRVO +31% on a single $3M insider buy.
• DUOT (Ascendiant Buy, PT 17->22) fits the cap but is a lone-analyst microcap with no second independent signal (L004).
• CBRL (known) remains catalyst-in-the-price after its +60% run; no new entry.

Decision: open nothing. Buying INTO a melt-up the afternoon before the FOMC print is the textbook L005 trap — pre-positioning around a coin-flip with worse info than the market. A flush tomorrow buys better entries; a melt-up I'm already long (book +3.3%). Carry the [path]$336 deployable cash into the print. Doing nothing on purpose is the highest-EV move. Held theses unchanged from the 15:00 FAST refresh; trailing stops do the risk work on the two leaders, hard stops on the three below activation.

DEEP tick ([path]11:52 ET), market open. Captured the account feed via the RH MCP (equity $1,033.05, buying power $536.35) and ran scripts.tick: tick_type DEEP, NO exit flags on any of the five open positions. 4th sweep of the day; signal brief persisted (logs/research/20260616T155449-signals.md).

Signals. Pulled CNBC RSS (macro/markets/earnings), HackerNews (stale, no edge), and WebSearch over the mover/upgrade queries. Tape has COOLED from the morning melt-up to holding STEADY ahead of the Fed (S&P flat; SpaceX/$SPCX still the dominant post-IPO story, VIX low = risk-on). Confirmed FOMC is a TWO-DAY meeting (Jun 16-17), decision TOMORROW Wed 6/17 2pm ET with a dot-plot/SEP — Warsh's first meeting, no-change consensus but the projections are a live binary. Macro backdrop: Brent <$80 on the US-Iran deal framework (Hormuz easing), BoJ hiked to 1%.

Candidates screened, none actionable. $TXN named Citi top pick (data-center power, H2-26 share gains) — but [path]$200+/share busts the whole-share per-trade cap (L001) AND it is an AI-cycle name carrying bellwether risk (L002); pass. $NVDA loud upgrade cycle, out of cap. $HOOD -1.5% on a 10% layoff, no thesis. No affordable name cleared the bar of a SECOND independent signal (L004).

Positions — all GREEN, theses intact (refreshed 13 min ago on the 15:39 FAST, unchanged):

• CMG +13.17% (lifetime peak): trailing profit-stop ratchets to +6.67% ($31.46); book's strongest, [path]5% under JPM $35 PT. Let it run.
• KTB +7.95% (peak +11.14%): trailing stop ACTIVE +5.57% ($76.76), [path]2.2% above it — tightest cushion in the book, the name to watch on a pullback; not flagged.
• CROX +5.45% (peak +5.86%): below +10% activate, fixed -10% stop governs; [path]14% under Baird $150 PT.
• EMBJ +5.59% (peak +9.45%): just shy of activate, fixed -10% stop; widest valuation gate ([path]26% under Scotiabank $81 PT).
• FRVO +2.94% (peak +4.47%): fixed -10% stop, post-IPO-base high holding.

DECISION: open nothing; HOLD all five. Pre-positioning into a scheduled binary the afternoon before FOMC is the exact L005 trap — a flush buys better entries tomorrow, a melt-up I am already long. Carry the [path]$336 deployable cash (buying power $536 minus the $200 buffer) INTO the print. Deployed-today $0, daily headroom $500 untouched. Doing nothing on purpose is the highest-EV move; the stops/ratchets do the risk work.

DEEP tick — 2026-06-16 [path]12:32 ET (FOMC eve)

Action: No trades. Hold all five; carry full dry powder into the Fed.

Situation

• Book: CMG +12.7% (peak +13.3%, trailing stop $31.46), KTB +7.9% (peak +11.1%, trailing $76.76), CROX +4.7%, EMBJ +6.3%, FRVO +2.6%. Zero exit flags, every thesis intact. Equity $1,032.24, buying power $536.35, deployed today $0, daily headroom $500.
• Signals: RSS macro/markets/earnings + HN sweep (400 docs) + WebSearch. Brief written (logs/research/20260616T163303-signals.md; no cashtags surfaced). Tape is risk-on but coiled: Dow at a fresh high on the easing US–Iran conflict + falling oil (Brent <$80), S&P roughly flat ahead of the Fed.

The decision and why

The dominant fact is the calendar: the FOMC decision is tomorrow, 2026-06-17 14:00 ET — Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair, with the dot plot/SEP and a live risk that the bias shifts from easing toward neutral/tightening; May retail sales also print decision-day morning. That is exactly the scheduled binary L005 governs. My book is already heavily rate-sensitive consumer-discretionary (CMG/KTB/CROX), so spending the $536 dry powder the afternoon before is just guessing the print with worse information than the market. The -10%/trailing stops already cap downside if it breaks bad; a flush tomorrow buys better entries, and a melt-up I'm already long across five names. So the highest-EV move is to do nothing new on purpose and carry the powder in.

No exit is warranted either: no hard flags, and re-reading each thesis, all five still hold. Nothing today rises to the L003 carve-out (an idiosyncratic relative-strength setup compelling enough to override FOMC-eve caution).

Per-name reads (refreshed)

• CMG — valuation-reset/JPM-OW($35) restaurant long, best performer at +12.7%; trailing stop now active at +6.7% ($31.46). Hold, let it run.
• KTB — Kontoor portfolio-transformation/buyback long; trailing stop active +5.6% ($76.76). Hold.
• CROX — Baird OP $150 NA/HEYDUDE turnaround; only news a benign equity-plan approval (no thesis impact). Hold.
• EMBJ — Embraer Scotiabank SO $81, widest valuation gate in the book; quiet. Hold.
• FRVO — Fervo geothermal/AI-power; another bullish init (Roth Buy $45, 6/12) reinforces the $45-51 cluster. Note its own scheduled binary: Q1 results 6/22 — holding the starter in, no add ahead of the print.

Guardrail check

No order placed → no guardrail interaction. Deployed-today stays $0; full $500 headroom and $536 buying power preserved for post-FOMC opportunities.

DEEP tick — signal sweep + thesis refresh, NO trades. Carrying dry powder into tomorrow's FOMC binary (L005).

Macro read (390-doc RSS/HN sweep + WebSearch). FOMC decision lands tomorrow 2026-06-17 14:00 ET — Warsh first meeting + dot plot, May retail sales decision-morning. CNBC Fed Survey: no change expected for a while; Treasury yields little changed into the print. Tape is risk-off-lite: Nasdaq/S&P lower, but Dow +450 as Brent falls <$80 on Iran/Hormuz easing (disinflationary tailwind for my consumer book). Empire State mfg June 5.7 vs 13.9 est — a real miss. Speculative micro-caps ripping (SUGP +179%, CRVO +31% on insider buy) — off-theme, skip (L001). Established consumer names seeing post-earnings selling pressure. No catalyst hit any held name.

Positions (all green, no exit flags).

• CMG 4 @ 29.49, last 33.04, +12.04% (peak +13.34%) — trailing stop ACTIVE +6.67% ($31.46). Book strongest, [path]5.5% under JPM $35 OW PT. HOLD, let it run under the ratchet.
• KTB 1 @ 72.71, last 78.59, +8.09% (peak +11.14%) — trailing ACTIVE +5.57% ($76.76), TIGHTEST cushion ([path]2.4%); the name to watch into FOMC weakness. JPM OW $90. HOLD.
• CROX 1 @ 122.16, last 128.16, +4.91% (peak +5.86%) — trailing off, -10% hard stop [path]$109.94. Baird OP $150. HOLD.
• EMBJ 2 @ 56.93, last 60.295, +5.91% (peak +9.45%) — day weakest but far from stops. Scotiabank SO $81 (widest gate). HOLD.
• FRVO 1 @ 34.65, last 35.585, +2.70% (peak +4.47%) — IPO base; $45-51 PT cluster; own Q1 print 06-22. HOLD.

Decision. No add, no trim. Book is rate-sensitive consumer-discretionary into a binary; L005 says carry the [path]$536 dry powder INTO the event, not deploy the afternoon before — a flush buys better entries, a melt-up I am already long. Daily headroom untouched ($500); deployed_today $0. The trailing stops do the risk work overnight.

DEEP tick — 2026-06-16 [path]17:42Z — HOLD all five, no trades, cash held into FOMC

Situation: DEEP scan [path]38 min after the prior DEEP (17:04Z). Equity $1,030.20, buying power $536.35, nothing deployed today (headroom $500). No exit flags. Five open positions, all green-to-flat:

• CMG +11.94% (peak +13.34%) — trailing profit-stop ACTIVE at +6.67% ([path]$31.46), [path]5% cushion. Best winner, near JPM $35 PT.
• KTB +8.31% (peak +11.14%) — trailing ACTIVE at +5.57% ([path]$76.76), tightest cushion ([path]2.5%); the name most exposed to a hawkish FOMC.
• CROX +4.81% (peak +5.86%) — trailing off, -10% hard stop ([path]$109.94) governs.
• EMBJ +5.88% (peak +9.45%) — trailing off, just shy of +10% activation; far from the -10% stop ([path]$51.24).
• FRVO -0.32% (peak +4.47%) — trailing off; holding IPO base; own Q1 print 06-22.

Fresh sweep (RSS + WebSearch) — nothing new for the book: Macro unchanged from the 17:04 read — FOMC tomorrow 6/17 14:00 ET (Warsh first meeting + dot plot), no change expected; Dow +450 on Brent <$80 (disinflationary, U.S. to allow Iran oil), Nasdaq/S&P softer on a chip rollover. Movers are off-theme: micro-cap rips (SUGP +179%, CRVO +31%), consumer earnings casualties (PLAY -19%), HOOD -1.5% on layoffs. Fintwit buzz (NVDA/RKLB/NBIS/TSLA) is off-theme and unaffordable as good single-share ideas under the $200 cap (L001).

Decision: HOLD all five. No sells, no buys. Every thesis is intact and unchanged (JPM CMG OW $35; JPM KTB OW $90; Baird CROX OP $150; Scotiabank EMBJ SO $81; multi-bank FRVO OW-OP $47-51); none flagged.

Why no adds: L005 governs — tomorrow's 14:00 ET FOMC is the scheduled binary. The edge is to carry dry powder INTO the event, not spend it the afternoon before; the -10%/trailing stops already cap downside. CMG/CROX adds would also breach the $200 per-trade cap, and KTB/EMBJ/FRVO add-on-confirmation triggers (a second independent signal, L004) are unmet. Highest-EV move is deliberate inaction with $536 cash held for a possible post-FOMC flush.

Ticker memories observed for all five.

DEEP tick — stand pat, carry dry powder into the FOMC binary (L005).

Macro regime. The Fed's two-day FOMC meeting is underway; the rate decision plus the quarterly dot plot / SEP lands tomorrow (6/17) at 2pm ET. Futures price [path]97% for a hold, but the binary isn't the rate — it's a possible hawkish bias shift (easing→neutral/tightening) with CPI still at 4.2%. Today's tape: Dow +450 on an oil crash (Brent <$80 after a report the U.S. will let Iran sell oil), Nasdaq red on a chip rollover — risk-on everywhere except tech.

Why I'm deploying nothing. My entire book is rate-sensitive consumer-discretionary (CMG restaurants, KTB denim, CROX/EMBJ footwear, FRVO). A hawkish dot plot is exactly the event that flushes these names — and L005 is explicit: don't spend or shed thesis-intact risk the afternoon before a scheduled binary. Carry the cash in; a flush buys better entries, a melt-up I'm already long. Buying power is $536 (well clear of the $200 buffer) and daily headroom is the full $500 — all of it stays dry. Adding more consumer-discretionary clones today would also be the L004 trap (one bet, not four).

Candidates scanned, none taken. No cashtag buzz cluster today. Movers were IPO mania ($SPCX up on its debut), small-cap gappers ($CRVO +31% on a single insider buy — a lottery, not a thesis), and a $PLAY -19% revenue miss (a broken print, not a dip). $HOOD slipped on a 10% layoff. Nothing here is affordable, high-conviction, AND FOMC-resilient (L001/L003 gate), so the cash stays.

Book status. All five positions green, no exit flags, every trailing stop respected (CMG peak +13.3% → stop $31.46; KTB peak +11.1% → stop $76.76). Theses unchanged; observations appended to each ticker memory.

Doing nothing on purpose, because nothing is the highest-EV move.

DEEP — stand pat into FOMC

Action: no trades. Deployed today $0; $500 daily headroom and $536 buying power preserved on purpose.

Why. FOMC concludes tomorrow (6/17, 2pm ET) — Warsh's first meeting as a hawkish chair. No hike priced for this meeting ([path]0.6%), but the dot plot is a real binary: 1-hike median = modest tightening, 2 = meaningfully hawkish vs current pricing; >=1 hike by YE26 is now [path]70% priced. My entire book is rate-sensitive consumer-discretionary, so this is exactly the scheduled-binary case L005 governs: carry dry powder INTO the event rather than spend or shed risk the afternoon before. A hawkish flush hands a better re-entry; a dovish surprise melts up names I'm already long. Either way, adding macro-correlated risk now is guessing the print with worse info than the market.

Book health. All five green, no exit flags, every thesis intact:

• CMG +11.7% (peak +13.3%, trailing stop $31.46) — strongest name, trailing stop doing its job.
• KTB +6.5% (peak +11.1%, trailing stop $76.76 active).
• CROX +5.0%, EMBJ +5.3%, FRVO +0.8% — trailing stops not yet armed, fixed -10% hard stops cap downside through the print.

Screen. Today's movers (SUGP +179% micro pump, CRVO +31% insider buy, PLAY -19% / VSME -33% on misses) are speculative micro-caps or busted earnings — none clear the L001/L004 conviction-and-affordability gate, and none are worth opening the day before FOMC. Nothing actionable.

DEEP — FOMC-eve, no new deployment (deliberate)

Setup. Tick fired DEEP with market open, $536.35 buying power, full $500 daily headroom, zero exit flags. The book is thesis-intact across all five names: CMG +11.1% (peak +13.3%, trailing stop $31.46), KTB +5.7% (peak +11.1%, trailing stop $76.76), CROX +4.5%, EMBJ +5.2%, FRVO -0.6% (peak +4.5%, well clear of any stop). Nothing to sell.

The load-bearing fact. The FOMC decision + Summary of Economic Projections (the dot plot) lands tomorrow, Wed Jun-17 at 2:00pm ET — Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as Chair. Consensus is a hold at 3.50-3.75%, but the market is positioned for the bias signal (easing -> neutral) in the dots, which makes this a genuine market-wide scheduled binary, not a routine print. RSS confirms it ("Treasury yields slide as Fed begins monetary policy meeting").

Decision: deploy nothing; carry the $536 dry powder into the event. This is L005 applied verbatim — do not pre-position around a scheduled binary; a flush tomorrow buys better entries, a melt-up I am already long across five decorrelated names. Pre-spending the afternoon before the dots is guessing the print with worse information than the tape.

Also ruled out on the merits. The loudest catalyst names in today's sweep — NVDA (multi-bank PT lifts on Blackwell H2 shipments) and MU (+8% premarket to [path]$1,061 on memory pricing) — are both four-figure share prices that cannot fit one whole share inside the $200/trade cap. Buying a second-best name just to deploy is the L001 trap; I am declining it. FERG (Reduce->Add) is a single-analyst upgrade with no second independent signal (L004) and, again, into the FOMC.

Net: held the book, no orders, dry powder preserved at $536 for a post-FOMC entry window. Doing nothing on purpose is the highest-EV move here.