DEEP tick — 2026-06-17 09:36 ET

Action: no new trades. Hold all five. Carry dry powder into FOMC.

The setup

Today is FOMC day — Kevin Warsh first meeting, decision at 2:00pm ET ([path]4.5h out). CME FedWatch [path]97% on a hold at 3.50-3.75%, but the live risk is not the level — it is a hawkish dot-plot shift toward a hike bias (BofA flags >=3 members projecting 2026 hikes; the Iran-war energy/inflation shock is pushing the committee hawkish).

Why this is the highest-EV move (L005)

My entire book is consumer-discretionary (CMG restaurants, KTB denim, CROX/EMBJ/FRVO footwear/retail) — the most rate-sensitive sector on the board. A hawkish 2pm surprise would hit all five together. L005 is explicit: do not spend or shed risk into a scheduled binary; a flush buys better entries, a melt-up you were already long. The -10% hard stops + armed trailing stops (CMG $31.46, KTB $76.76) already cap the downside. So I deploy none of the [path]$336 deployable headroom ahead of the print and keep $536 buying power dry.

Why nothing in the tape forced my hand

No exit flags — every position re-justified (theses intact, no stock-specific news). Today movers were chases, not setups: CRVO +31% on a $3M insider buy (biotech, off-thesis, fails L003/L004 buy-below-a-fresh-buy-rated-PT), CUPR -33% sell-the-news. PLAY -20% on soft consumer demand is a theme-level yellow flag logged against the whole book (FRVO the weakest link to watch post-FOMC).

Plan

Reassess after the 2pm decision. A hawkish flush that holds my stops = a chance to add dry powder at better levels; a dovish/neutral print = stay long and let winners run.

DEEP tick ([path]10:12 ET, market open) — full signal sweep run (RSS macro/markets/earnings, HackerNews, WebSearch over movers + analyst flow). HOLD ALL, NO NEW TRADES; carry the $536 dry powder into the 2pm FOMC.

Sweep result — nothing actionable + an event wall:

• FOMC decision today 2:00pm ET (Warsh's first meeting vs a committee CNBC/Kalshi flag hawkish). Dow at a record into the print; oil higher on the Iran war = the energy-led inflation tail that could force a hawkish dot-plot. My entire book is consumer-discretionary — the single most rate-sensitive sector — so a hawkish surprise hits all five together. Adding more consumer beta now is a wrong-way bet INTO a coin-flip (L005: carry dry powder in, don't pre-position; the -10% stops already cap downside if it breaks bad).
• Movers offer no clean entry: SUGP +179% / CRVO +31% (insider-buy biotech) are micro-cap/chase setups that fail entry discipline; PLAY -19% on a Q1 miss + -5.4% comps is a consumer-demand yellow flag, not a long. Upgrade flow is all AI megacaps (NVDA/AVGO/META/INTC/HOOD) — off-theme and out of reach under the $200 whole-share cap (L001). No idiosyncratic name sitting below a fresh buy-rated PT (the gate that defines a real entry, L003).

Positions (no exit flags; all green, all above governing stops, theses intact):

• CMG +9.38% (peak +13.34%) — trailing stop ACTIVE +6.67% ([path]$31.46), [path]2.5% above price: tightest cushion and the one live risk into a hawkish 2pm. JPM OW $35 intact, [path]8% below PT.
• KTB +8.71% (peak +11.14%) — trailing stop ACTIVE +5.57% ([path]$76.76), [path]2.9% above. Lee-divestiture/buyback, JPM OW $90 intact, [path]12% below PT.
• EMBJ +9.61% (peak +9.61%) — at a fresh high, just under the +10% trailing-activate; fixed -10% stop still governs. Scotiabank SO $81, widest valuation gate; today's best print.
• CROX +4.13% (peak +5.86%) — fixed -10% stop governs. Baird OP $150 turnaround intact; add UNMET (L004).
• FRVO +2.73% (peak +4.47%) — fixed -10% stop governs. Multi-bank $47-51 initiation intact; add trigger UNMET.

Capital unchanged: deployed_today $0, daily headroom $500, buying power $536.35. Fresh brief written (logs/research/20260617T141422-signals.md).

DEEP tick (10:51 ET, market open). 3rd sweep of the day. Pulled RSS macro/markets/earnings (390 docs) + HN + WebSearch over the mover/upgrade queries, and checked each held name for fresh catalysts. No trades. Hold all five, carry the full $536 dry powder INTO the 2:00pm FOMC.

The whole tape is the FOMC. Kevin Warsh chairs his first meeting at 2:00pm ET today; CNBC/Kalshi still frame the committee as hawkish-leaning (though Kalshi now reads a "more united board"). The Dow sits at a fresh record ([path]52,000, +0.6%%) INTO the print and oil is higher on the Iran war (BMW cut guidance citing Iran+China) — energy-led inflation is exactly the hawkish tail. My entire book is consumer-discretionary (CMG/KTB/CROX/EMBJ/FRVO), the single most rate-sensitive sleeve, so a hawkish 2pm surprise hits all five at once. Adding consumer beta three hours before a coin-flip is the wrong-way bet (L005).

Held-name check — every thesis intact, no exit flags:

• CMG +8.3%% (peak +13.3%%): JPM OW $35 reset/SSS story intact; trailing profit-stop ACTIVE, locked +6.67%% ($31.46), [path]1.5%% of cushion. Mechanical from here.
• KTB +7.6%% (peak +11.1%%): JPM OW $90, Lee-divestiture/buyback story intact; Zacks sees +9.2%% sales / +15.6%% EPS. Trailing ACTIVE, locked +5.57%% ($76.76).
• EMBJ +9.7%% (peak +9.9%%): Scotiabank SO $81, widest valuation gate, strongest unrealized — one leg from arming its trailing stop. -10%% hard stop intact.
• CROX +4.6%%: Baird OP $150 turnaround intact; mgmt reiterates [path]10%% intl growth for 2026 (margin/tariff chatter persists). Bought at a 52-wk high so the L004 add-gate stays UNMET — no add.
• FRVO +2.5%%: multi-bank $47-51 geothermal-as-AI-power story intact; sits comfortably above its -10%% stop.

No clean new entry anyway. Today's upgrade flow — ABNB Buy $170 (B.Riley), ZM Buy $106 (Citi), DDOG OW $180 (MS), RKLB Buy init — is all off-theme, and the AI-megacap calls (NVDA/AVGO/MU/TSLA/NFLX) stay out of reach under the $200 whole-share cap (L001). Nothing idiosyncratic sitting below a fresh buy-rated PT that fits one whole share. So even setting L005 aside, there is no trade to make. Discipline today is doing nothing on purpose: a flush buys better entries, a melt-up I am already long.

DEEP scan — 2026-06-17 [path]11:30 ET — DO NOTHING ON PURPOSE (carry dry powder into FOMC)

Setup. DEEP tick, market open, book of 5 all green, zero exit flags. Buying power $536.35; cash-buffer floor $200 -> [path]$336 deployable; daily headroom $500 fully intact (deployed_today $0).

The dominant signal is the calendar, not a ticker. Today is FOMC day — the first rate decision chaired by newly sworn-in Kevin Warsh. Decision lands 14:00 ET, presser 14:30 ET ([path]2.5h after this tick). Futures price [path]97% a hold at 3.50–3.75%, so the move isn't in the rate — it's in the dot plot (Street expects the lone projected 2026 cut removed, i.e. the easing bias formally dropped) and Warsh's debut tone vs a "hawkish committee." That is a genuine scheduled binary that can re-rate the whole tape. Dow sits at a near-record 51,999 into it; oil/Iran is the secondary macro driver.

This is L005, verbatim and tagged to my exact book (CMG/KTB/CROX). "Do not trim a thesis-intact book around a scheduled binary... carry dry powder INTO the event, not spend or shed risk the afternoon before — a flush buys better entries; a melt-up you were already long. The discipline is doing nothing on purpose when nothing is the highest-EV move." I'm thesis-intact across all 5 and already long the broadening / consumer-discretionary theme, so I have the upside if it melts up and dry powder if it flushes.

Did I look for an override? Yes. L003 says an idiosyncratic relative-strength story is still tradeable even into a scary tape. But today's actual movers are mega-caps — MMM +3.7%, NVDA +1.8%, JNJ +1.6% — all over my $200/trade cap and off-theme (L001 trap), and no fresh affordable buy-rated catalyst below PT surfaced in the RSS/HN/WebSearch sweep. Nothing clears the bar to justify front-running the Fed.

Action: NO new positions, NO exits. Hold all 5. Carry [path]$336 dry powder + full $500 daily headroom into the 14:00 print; reassess on the next tick once the dot plot and Warsh's tone are known.

Book snapshot (peaks/trailing tracked by tick):

• CMG 4 @ 29.49 -> 32.455 (+10.1%, peak +13.3%, trail $31.46 active)
• KTB 1 @ 72.71 -> 77.94 (+7.2%, peak +11.1%, trail $76.76 active)
• EMBJ 2 @ 56.93 -> 62.70 (+10.1%, peak +10.1%, trail $59.82 active)
• CROX 1 @ 122.16 -> 127.30 (+4.2%, peak +5.9%, trail off)
• FRVO 1 @ 34.65 -> 35.52 (+2.5%, peak +4.5%, trail off)

Signal brief: logs/research/20260617T153203-signals.md (RSS macro/markets/earnings + HN; 0 cashtags extracted — narrative-only macro sweep). Per-symbol news_ingest 404'd this tick (known feed issue), not blocking.

DEEP tick (2026-06-17, [path]12:02 ET) — gathered signals, refreshed theses, placed no trades. Carrying full dry powder into the FOMC print. Brief: logs/research/20260617T160338-signals.md (360 RSS docs across macro/markets/earnings; 0 cashtag signals — RSS rarely cashtags, so the read is the macro tape, not a single hot ticker).

The day is the Fed, and it is a scheduled binary. Today is Kevin Warsh's first FOMC decision: statement 2:00pm ET, his first press conference 2:30pm ET — i.e. the catalyst lands [path]2 hours from now. CME FedWatch had [path]97% odds of a hold and the decision confirmed the range unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, but the afternoon is the real coin-flip: the updated dot plot, the expected removal of the easing bias from the statement, and Warsh (widely read as more hawkish than Powell) holding court for the first time. A hawkish lean is the live risk. Macro backdrop is also hot-ish/hawkish-leaning: May retail sales +0.9% (vs +0.5% est) and an Iran/oil war still in the tape.

Decision: do nothing on purpose — textbook L005. My book is five consumer-discretionary-tilted names (CMG, KTB, CROX, EMBJ, FRVO), all green, every thesis re-justified on the 11:54 FAST tick, and ZERO exit flags. L005 is explicit: do not trim a thesis-intact book around a scheduled binary, and do not pre-position into one either — pre-spending dry powder the afternoon before a coin-flip is guessing the print with worse info than the market. The edge is to carry cash IN: a hawkish flush buys better entries on names I already like, a dovish melt-up I'm already long via five positions. The -10% hard stops and the active trailing stops (CMG $31.46, KTB $76.76, EMBJ $59.95) already cap the downside if the print breaks bad — no need to hand-manage risk ahead of it.

No adds, separately confirmed by L004. Every position is a starter and the add gate is a second independent signal (another analyst, a price-action breakout, a fresh fundamental print). Today's sweep surfaced none — no new catalyst on any held name, no compelling new affordable single-whole-share idea. Forcing exposure into a hawkish-risk Fed afternoon would be exactly the trap L004/L001 warn about.

State: equity $1,033.27 (+3.3% vs $1,000 start), buying power $536.35, $0 deployed today (headroom $500). Deployable beyond the $200 cash buffer ([path]$336) stays in reserve. Next look is post-FOMC — re-evaluate the book and any flush-driven entries after the 2:30pm presser, not before.

DEEP tick — 2026-06-17 (FOMC day): deliberate no-trade

Setup. Equity $1,032.46 (+3.2% on the $1,000 start), $536.35 buying power, full $500 daily headroom. Book is 5/5 green with no exit flags: CMG +9.36%, KTB +7.55%, CROX +3.77%, EMBJ +10.77%, FRVO +3.98%. Three names (CMG, KTB, EMBJ) have active ratcheting trailing profit-stops, all sitting well below the live quote — nothing is close to triggering.

The tape. Two stories own the session: (1) FOMC day — Kevin Warsh first rate decision lands [path]2pm ET, with the dot plot reportedly withheld, so the reaction function is unusually uncertain; (2) the SpaceX IPO debut (>$2T cap, Musk becomes first trillionaire) sucking up all the retail oxygen. Neither hands me an idiosyncratic, affordable, high-conviction new name — the brief extracted zero ticker signals.

Decision: hold everything, deploy nothing. Textbook L005. Buying [path]90 minutes before a coin-flip Fed print is just guessing the print with worse information than the market; my -10% hard stops already cap the downside on the existing book. The edge is carrying dry powder INTO the event — a flush buys better entries, a melt-up I am already long five ways. So no new entries, and no trimming of thesis-intact winners ahead of the binary. Doing nothing on purpose is the highest-EV move.

Also reinforced L004/L001: even if I wanted to add, the only affordable on-tape ideas would be more clones of the same buy-rated-catalyst template (one bet, not four) — not a reason to force exposure. Refreshed ticker memory on all five holds; brief persisted to logs/research/. Re-evaluate post-FOMC on the next DEEP tick.

DEEP — no new entries (FOMC discipline)

Tick: DEEP, market open, equity $1,033.72, buying power $536.35, deployed today $0 / $500 headroom.

Context. FOMC decision lands at 2pm ET ([path]45 min out) — Kevin Warsh's first meeting, presser 2:30pm. [path]97% priced for a HOLD at 3.50–3.75%; the live risk is the dot plot / guidance, not the rate. May CPI hot at 4.2% YoY → consensus the Fed drops its lone 2026 cut and ≥3 members may dot a hike, under a chair who favors less forward guidance. Elevated post-2pm volatility regardless of the expected hold.

Decision: do nothing on new entries — carry dry powder into the binary (L005). The book is 5/5 green with no exit flags and every trailing stop well below price; -10% hard stops cap downside. A hawkish flush buys better entries post-print; a dovish melt-up I am already long for. Spending $536 the hour before a coin-flip is guessing the print with worse info than the market.

Signals. RSS macro/markets/earnings (360 docs) + HN (40) → zero cashtags. WebSearch movers (MMM +3.7, NVDA +1.8, JNJ +1.6; IBM −2.4, HD −2.1, CRM −1.6) are all above whole-share affordability with no fresh idiosyncratic thesis — forcing exposure would be L001.

Positions (unchanged): CMG +10.1% (trail $31.46), KTB +7.1% (trail $76.76), EMBJ +10.8% (trail $60.08), CROX +4.0% (trail off), FRVO +5.1% (trail off).

Next: re-scan after the 2pm decision / 2:30 presser; deploy then if a flush opens a clean entry.

DEEP — 2026-06-17 (FOMC day): hold the book, carry dry powder into the print

Action: no trades. Reviewed the full book and the macro calendar; deliberately deployed nothing.

Why nothing is the highest-EV move (L005)

The FOMC decision lands at 2:00pm ET today ([path]10 min after this tick), with new Chair Warsh's debut press conference at 2:30pm. [path]97% priced for a hold at 3.50-3.75%, so the tradeable event isn't the rate — it's the updated dot plot and whether the Fed removes its easing bias with CPI at a 3-year-high 4.2%. That is a textbook scheduled binary. L005: don't pre-position around a coin-flip you'd be guessing with worse info than the market; carry dry powder in — a hawkish flush buys better entries, a dovish melt-up I'm already long. Deployable reserve [path]$336 (BP $536.35 − $200 cash buffer) stays in cash.

Book review (all 5 green, zero exit flags, theses intact)

• CMG +9.4% (peak +13.3%, trailing stop $31.46) — JPM Overweight/$35 valuation-reset story intact.
• KTB +7.7% (peak +11.1%, trailing stop $76.76) — Lee divestiture + buyback transformation intact.
• EMBJ +10.7% (peak +11.1%, trailing stop $60.08) — Scotiabank SO/$81, widest valuation gate; intact.
• CROX +4.3% (trailing stop off) — Baird Outperform/$150 NA+HEYDUDE turnaround; intact.
• FRVO +6.1% (trailing stop off) — multi-bank geothermal/AI-power initiation; intact.

No position's break-line is hit; no hard/trailing stop is flagged. Every thesis is explicitly "add only on confirmation," and none received a confirming second catalyst today — so even setting FOMC aside, there is no add trigger.

Risk-factor discipline (L004)

The whole book is one method-replication bet — fresh buy-rated analyst catalyst, entry below the new PT, repeated across decorrelated names. Adding another clone on FOMC afternoon would stack L004 (mistaking one template for many convictions) on top of L005 (pre-positioning a binary). Declined.

Plan into the print

Trailing stops on CMG/KTB/EMBJ are active and fairly tight (5-7% locks). A hawkish Warsh flush could trip one on the next FAST tick — that's the ratchet doing its job, not a thesis break. Re-evaluate post-2:30pm with the dots + presser in hand; deploy the reserve only if the tape hands me a fresh buy-rated name well below PT on a flush (L003 gate).

DEEP — 2026-06-17 (FOMC afternoon): the print landed hawkish, the flush did not — hold, dry powder stays

Action: no trades. This is the post-decision re-evaluation the 17:51 DEEP promised. Reviewed the FOMC outcome, the tape, and a fresh candidate scan; deliberately deployed nothing.

The print (Warsh debut, hawkish)

Fed held at 3.50-3.75% ([path]97% priced) but removed the easing/cutting bias and the SEP median year-end dot rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in March — i.e. the committee now pencils in [path]one HIKE in 2026, with several officials dotting hikes. The 2-year yield jumped. Unambiguously hawkish guidance.

…but no flush (the thing L005 was waiting for)

Equities digested it rather than flushing: S&P -0.08%, Nasdaq +0.03%, Dow +0.22%, and Russell 2000 +1.24% — the broadening/cyclical trade led. My five consumer-cyclical names dipped only marginally intraday (CMG $32.07, KTB $77.03, CROX $126.89, EMBJ $62.24, FRVO $36.62 at 18:26Z), all green, zero exit flags, all clear of their stops.

Why nothing is still the highest-EV move

• L005 resolved the right way by inaction. I carried dry powder into the binary; the payoff for that is buying a flush or being already long a melt-up. We got neither — a muted, slightly-cyclical-positive tape — so there is no asymmetric better-entry to deploy into. The L003 gate (a fresh buy-rated name handed to me well below PT on a flush) is simply not met.
• No adds (L004). No held name received a second independent catalyst today; today moves are tape/rotation, not fresh signals. Adding a sixth clone of the same buy-rated-below-PT template on a now-explicitly-hawkish macro would stack risk-factor concentration on top of a worse rate backdrop.
• Candidate scan came up dry. RSS/HN carried no cashtag buzz; WebSearch surfaced only modest PT revisions (JPM Gap->$35) and unrelated initiations (TD Cowen STVN Buy $25, CLSA Coupang OP $24) — none clears the bar versus holding cash.

Macro note for the book

The dot shift to a hike-leaning Fed is a genuine regime nudge, but the market reaction — cyclicals/small-caps leading on the hawkish print — is mildly supportive of a consumer-cyclical book over high-multiple growth (the L003 idiosyncratic-vs-macro lens). No thesis is impaired; I am watching whether sustained higher short rates start to bite the consumer names, which would be a thesis question, not a stop question.

State

Equity $1,029.68 (+2.97% vs the $1,000 start), cash $536.35 untouched, deployed today $0, daily headroom $500. Deployable reserve [path]$336 (BP - $200 buffer) stays in cash. Trailing stops govern CMG/KTB/EMBJ (5-7% locks); CROX/FRVO on the fixed -10%. Re-evaluate on the next tick.

FAST tick (Day 15 / Wed, [path]14:37 ET). Tick flagged ONE mandatory exit: KTB trailing_stop. KTB rode to a +11.14% lifetime peak, arming the ratcheting profit-stop at +5.57% (half the peak); price faded to +5.52% and tripped it. SOLD 1 @ $76.6401 (validate->review->place->record-fill, ref_id a3f8c2e1, order 6a32e967), realizing [path]+$3.93 / +5.41% vs $72.7099 cost. The JPM-Overweight portfolio-transformation/capital-return thesis was still intact — this was the rule protecting a locked gain, not a thesis break (clean, by-the-book exit, exactly like the system is meant to work). Re-justified the other four, all HOLD, all green, none flagged: CMG +8.82% (trailing armed @ $31.46), CROX +3.86% (trailing off, -10% stop), EMBJ +9.77% / +4.3% on day (trailing armed @ $60.08), FRVO +7.36% / +9.7% on day, fresh high-water (trailing off). No adds — FAST tick, and every position remains add-only-on-confirmation with no second signal today. FRVO's and EMBJ's pops had no headline (FAST pulls none); will hunt the catalyst on the next DEEP. Net: one realized green, book down to 4 names, buying power back up to [path]$613 / [path]$536 cash (post-settle). Headroom untouched (deployed_today $0).

DEEP tick (2026-06-17 [path]3:08pm ET, market open) — second post-FOMC candidate scan, [path]36m after the 18:29 brief. No exit flags; HOLD all four; NO new trades.

Macro: the Warsh-led FOMC held 3.50-3.75% but stripped the easing bias and lifted the SEP dot to [path]3.8% (one HIKE penciled for 2026); 2yr yield rocketed. Explicitly HAWKISH. The tape digested it again with no risk-off flush — Dow led near a record (+0.64%) and the broadening/cyclical trade is what is working. Constructive backdrop for my consumer-cyclical sleeve, but not a flush handing me a better entry.

Book ($1,027.66 equity, $536.35 BP, $0 deployed today / full $500 headroom): four green names, all theses intact, all clear of stops, zero exit flags.

• CMG +8.39% (peak +13.34%): trailing profit-stop ACTIVE +6.67% ([path]$31.46), [path]1.6% cushion. JPM Overweight valuation-reset/SSS. HOLD, let it run.
• EMBJ +9.10% (peak +11.07%): trailing profit-stop ACTIVE +5.53% ([path]$60.08), [path]3.7% cushion. Scotiabank SO PT $81 aero/defense. HOLD.
• CROX +3.02% (peak +5.86%): below activate, fixed -10% stop governs. Baird OP PT $150 turnaround. HOLD.
• FRVO +5.93% (peak +7.71%): below activate, fixed -10% stop governs. Multi-bank geothermal/AI-power. HOLD.

Signals (RSS macro/markets/earnings [path]360 docs + HN + WebSearch over QUERIES): movers are mega-caps off my cap/thesis (3M +3.7% $149, NVDA +1.8% $225, JNJ +1.6% $227; IBM/HD/CRM red). Fresh inits all fail the gate — ONTO (MS OW PT$371 @$324; semicap/AI-hardware de-rate, over $200 cap, L001), MCK ([path]$700, over cap), TWST (Piper Buy PT$85; single-init biotech clone, off-book, no 2nd signal, L004). No fresh fintwit/WSB/stocktwits cashtag (SpaceX noise only). RSS carried 0 mechanical ticker signals; the read is in the brief notes.

New this DEEP: resolved the FRVO catalyst hunt deferred from today FAST ticks — today [path]+10% pop has no discrete headline; it is run-up into FRVO FIRST public earnings, Mon 2026-06-22 pre-market. That is a SCHEDULED BINARY, so L005 now governs FRVO: do NOT add into a coin-flip first print; hold the starter under its -10% stop and let the print, not the run-up, be the catalyst. Memory updated.

Why no trades: no flush gave an asymmetric entry (L005); no affordable buy-rated name below PT with a second independent signal clears L003/L004 on an explicitly hawkish tape; affordability is not conviction (L001). Discipline is to hold the four green names under their ratcheting stops and keep the deployable reserve ([path]BP $536 - $200 buffer = [path]$336) in cash. DEEP complete.

DEEP — 2026-06-17 [path]15:46 ET (Day 15, 5th DEEP)

Macro / regime. New Fed Chair Warsh debut FOMC: HELD at 3.50-3.75% but a sharply HAWKISH surprise — 9 of 18 participants now project a 2026 HIKE, the easing bias was stripped, and the 2yr Treasury yield jumped [path]14bp to a >1yr high; inflation sticky [path]4.2% YoY. Broad risk-off: S&P -1.06%, Nasdaq -1%, Dow -0.8%. Rotation themes are financials (deepest bench of near-breakouts) and "broadening beyond AI."

Signals gathered. RSS macro/markets/earnings (CNBC) + HackerNews + WebSearch over the trending-ticker/movers queries. Brief persisted at logs/research/20260617T194706-signals.md. Per-symbol checks run on all four holdings (Yahoo ticker RSS 404'd in news_ingest, so verified via WebSearch).

Book status — all four GREEN on a RED tape (L003 idiosyncratic relative strength), no exit flags, all theses intact:

• CMG +8.1% (peak +13.3%, trailing stop active .46) — JPM OW PT35, SSS turnaround.
• EMBJ +7.5% (peak +11.1%, trailing stop active .08) — Scotiabank SO PT81, aero/defense, least rate-sensitive sleeve.
• FRVO +5.7% — multi-bank geothermal/AI-power; reports Q1 Monday 6/22 (scheduled binary).
• CROX +2.2% — Baird OP PT150; Q1 beat + raised FY EPS guide resurfaced; today's laggard but no damage.

Candidates considered and PASSED. The buzz names today are AVGO (JPM "aggressive buyers," +54% upside call), MU (tripled in 2026, DB says rally not over), QCOM (JPM Positive Catalyst Watch into 6/24 Investor Day, PT 265), INTC (double upgrade, Cramer's #1). All are unaffordable AI/chip MOMENTUM names at whole-share under the cap, and they are the most exposed to the hawkish-rate rotation — textbook L001 (affordability masquerading as conviction). No genuinely affordable, differentiated, fresh-catalyst single name surfaced.

Decision: NO new deployment. Hold all four; keep dry powder dry.

• The book is already one template — a fresh buy-rated analyst catalyst sitting below PT — replicated across 4 decorrelated names. That is a single risk factor (L004); bolting on a 5th clone into a hawkish-surprise risk-off afternoon adds correlated risk for no edge.
• FRVO prints Monday: carry the starter, do not pre-position ahead of a scheduled binary (L005). Let the print be the second signal.
• Winners (CMG, EMBJ) are now protected by ratcheting trailing stops and meant to run.
• Doing nothing on purpose is the highest-EV move here. deployed_today=0, headroom , BP .35 ([path] deployable above the cash buffer) — all left intact for a better entry or a confirmed FRVO post-print add.