DEEP — 2026-07-02 [path]09:42 ET (Day 21)

Action: research-only, no trade. Book fully deployed — no dry powder. BP $205.5 vs the $200 cash-buffer floor = [path]$5.5 free (L001). Any buy above [path]$5.50 is rejected by the cash-buffer guardrail, so opening a new position is impossible this tick regardless of conviction. No exit flags either — nothing forced. So the honest highest-EV move is to log the tape, protect the winners via the ratchet, and do nothing (L005-adjacent: don't force risk for its own sake).

Tape

Mildly risk-on. June nonfarm payrolls cooled to +57k vs +113k expected, unemployment 4.2% — a soft print that breaks a 3-month hot streak and eases near-term Fed-hike pressure (rate-cut-friendly, supports small/mid-cap & cyclical beta). S&P [path]+0.3%, Dow [path]+0.5%, Nasdaq [path]+0.2% (bouncing after Wed's chip-led slide). Autos mixed (TSLA deliveries +25%, RIVN raised, LUCID missed, F -10.3%); NKE beat + $986M tariff refund.

Book (all green except QURE)

• AVAV $190.96, +13.67% vs $168 — the story of the day, +10.7% on the session. Fresh lifetime peak; trailing profit-stop now ACTIVE, locked +6.83% / $179.48. Pure momentum continuation of the Q4 beat-and-raise into the NYC investor day Wed 07-08 (next catalyst); no single new catalyst today. Defense-budget load-bearing wall (L002) intact & accelerating. House-money hold — let the ratchet work.
• VRNS $42.00, +15.64% (peak +18.94%). Trailing stop ACTIVE +9.47% / $39.76, [path]$2.24 of room. Multi-signal cyber/DSPM thesis (Stephens OW $45 + DA Davidson $37 + PE take-private interest) intact. Decorrelated sleeve. Winner runs.
• CROX $126.37 +3.44% (peak +5.86%), XYZ $80.36 +4.83%, KMX $52.09 -1.40%, TGT $131.40 -2.25% — all thesis-intact, trailing stops off, well above the -10% hard stops; no re-evaluation trigger, FAST re-justifies intraday.
• QURE $44.98, -6.64% — only red name; peak was +3.63% so it's on the fixed -10% stop (breach [path]$43.36), still [path]$1.62 of room. Gene-therapy thesis unbroken; watch, no action.

Signals / research

Ran the DEEP sweep (RSS macro/markets/earnings + HN) → wrote logs/research/20260702T134331-signals.md (0 cashtag rows — RSS headlines carry no $TICKER tags; the machinery/notes are what pace the next DEEP). Auto per-ticker news ingest 404'd for every symbol (infra, upstream feed down) — WebSearch used instead to confirm the AVAV catalyst (continuation, not new) and the tape.

Net: HOLD everything, no add/trim/exit. Two winners (AVAV, VRNS) now protected by active ratcheting profit-stops; the rest clear of their hard stops. Next DEEP paced off the brief just written.

DEEP tick — signal sweep + brief, no trades (no deployable cash).

Sweep: 390 docs (RSS macro/markets/earnings + HN). Macro unchanged from the 09:42 sweep — June payrolls cooled to +57k, unemployment 4.2% (rate-cut-friendly, small-cap/cyclical bid); TSLA deliveries +25%, RIVN raised, LUCID missed, F sales -10.3%, NKE beat + tariff refund; CNBC flags memory-chip volatility. No single new actionable catalyst for a held name and no fresh tradeable idea. Brief written (logs/research/20260702T141537-signals.md), 0 ticker signals — research-only.

Capital: BP $205.5 vs $200 cash buffer => [path]$5.5 deployable, no whole share fits. Per L001 I do not force exposure — hold the cash.

Positions (no exit flags):

• VRNS +16.80% (peak +18.94%) — trailing profit-stop active, locked +9.47% / $39.76 (price $42.42 well clear). Let it run.
• AVAV +16.54% (peak +18.32%) — trailing profit-stop active, locked +9.16% / $183.39 (price $195.79 clear). Investor day 07-08. Let it run.
• CROX +1.98%, XYZ +5.36% (Piper double-upgrade PT $100, firmer crypto tape), KMX -3.65% (Stephens OW $66 turnaround), TGT -2.71% (Wolfe OP/Top-Pick $162 vs Barclays bear standoff, bull fact un-refuted) — all thesis-intact holds.
• QURE -8.34% ($44.16), tightest leash: re-verified core AMT-130 BLA thesis un-refuted against fresh SEC 8-Ks + StockTitan (June Type-B → 3-yr analysis accepted as primary BLA basis, Q3-26 submission, Barclays OW $65). No FDA setback; dip is biotech profit-taking. Hard stop [path]$43.36; my discretionary exit is a decisive close below [path]$45 or an FDA setback. Per L005 hold intraday noise the hard stop caps. Re-arm next tick.

QURE ticker memory updated with the DEEP re-check + sources.

FAST tick — one action: the mandatory QURE -10% hard-stop exit.

What I did. QURE tripped the stop_loss flag at $43.26 (-10.21% vs my $48.18 avg), at/through the [path]$43.36 stop line I'd pre-committed to on the last two ticks. Sold both shares via trade.py (validate -> place -> record-fill) at a marketable limit; filled 2 @ $43.1301 (order 6a4678a8). Position CLOSED, realized [path]-$10 on the [path]$96 clip. Because bid had slipped to $43.17 by the time I placed, I set the limit at $43.10 (through the bid) so the mandatory stop actually executed rather than resting an un-fillable $43.26 limit — the logged fill reflects the true $43.13 execution.

Why it's the right call, not a panic. No fresh FDA/clinical setback drove this — the AMT-130 accelerated-approval BLA optionality (Q3-2026 filing; Cantor OW $61 / Barclays $65) is un-refuted. What failed was the ADD leg: the price-confirmation that justified the 06-24 add was voided when QURE broke back under the $47-48 base on 06-30/07-01, and from there the -10% stop was the only remaining floor. On a clinical gene-therapy name the percent-stop is the primary protection (overnight gap risk makes it weak but it's what I've got), so honoring it beats averaging down into a binary. L005: the hard stop is exactly what caps the downside on names like this — let it work.

The rest of the book — reviewed, all held, no exit flags.

• CROX +1.25%, KMX -4.13%, TGT -2.82%, XYZ +3.21% — all trailing-stop-off, comfortably above their -10% hard stops, theses intact, no company-specific breaks.
• VRNS +15.69% (peak +18.94%) — trailing stop ACTIVE at +9.47% ($39.76), price well above it. Winner running under the ratchet.
• AVAV +14.43% (peak +18.32%) — gapped +11.5% on the day ($172.44 -> $192.245); trailing stop ACTIVE at +9.16% ($183.39). Defense/drone re-rate; let it run, stop protects the gain.

Book after: 6 positions, equity [path]$1,046, buying power $205.5 ([path]$5.5 over the $200 buffer), deployed-today $0, full $500 daily headroom. No DEEP due (this was a FAST); no new capital deployed.

DEEP tick (4th of the day; [path]34 min after the 10:13 ET sweep). Ran the full signal sweep — 360 RSS macro/markets/earnings docs + HN + a focused WebSearch over movers/AVAV. Brief persisted: logs/research/20260702T145205-signals.md.

No trade this tick — capital-gated, not conviction-gated. Buying power is $205.50 against the $200 cash buffer, so only [path]$5.50 is deployable; the QURE stop-out proceeds ([path]$86, filled 14:43) haven't settled into buying power yet. Book is effectively fully deployed. L001/L005: hold the cash, don't force a sub-scale trade.

The one thing worth flagging — AVAV's add-trigger is now armed. My 6/30 AVAV entry was a deliberate 1-share starter (L004) explicitly awaiting a second independent signal before sizing up. That signal arrived, stacked:

• 7/1 $500M firm-fixed-price counter-drone (C-UAS) contract through 2029 — feeds the segment mgmt guides to 2-3x over 3-5 yrs.
• Wedbush INITIATED Outperform, $250 PT ([path]31% above today's $190.69) — a second analyst voice beyond KeyBanc's $295.
• Backlog +65% to $1.2B confirms the defense-procurement cadence that is the load-bearing wall (L002); macro tailwind ('investors pile into defense', Quantum Systems +$1.2B raise same week). Thesis upgraded starter -> core. The ONLY gate on an add is the cash buffer. Pre-recorded the catalyst to the news log and updated logs/tickers/AVAV.md so the add is pre-justified the moment buying power frees up (one whole share [path]$191 still fits the $200 per-trade cap). Position meanwhile runs under its active ratchet (trailing stop +9.16% / $183.39).

Rest of the book — re-justified, no exit flags:

• VRNS +15.0% (peak +18.9%) — trailing stop ACTIVE +9.47% ($39.76); data-security winner running.
• CROX +0.31%, XYZ +2.47% — green, trailing-off, theses intact.
• KMX -4.84%, TGT -3.14% — trailing-off, comfortably above their -10% hard stops; consumer/retail theses un-broken, no company-specific catalyst against them today.

Rotation tape (cooling +57k payrolls -> rate-cut bid to small-caps/cyclicals; KOSPI -10% overnight memory de-lever pressuring semis; CAT into Russell Top 50). Nothing macro impairs a held name.

Book after: 6 positions, equity [path]$1,039.8, BP $205.5 ([path]$5.5 over buffer), deployed-today $0, full $500 daily headroom. Next DEEP paces off this brief's timestamp.

DEEP tick — full signal sweep, no action (HOLD across all six; no new capital deployed).

Sweep. 5th DEEP of the day ([path]36 min after the 10:49 sweep). Pulled the macro/markets/earnings RSS (360 docs) + a fresh WebSearch mover/AVAV sweep, ranked and persisted the brief (logs/research/20260702T152830-signals.md). Macro unchanged: cooled June payrolls (+57k, 4.2% unemployment) keep the rate-cut/small-cap bid on; memory-chip volatility pressures semis; defense/drone stays the hot theme. Today's actual mover leaderboard is pure speculative micro-cap froth (CWD +89%, USDE +71%, LHAI -41%) — no fundamental catalyst, uninvestable under the doctrine (L001/L004).

AVAV — the one live idea, and it's gated. Now +14.6% at $192.54 (fresh high vs the $168 cost), the +20% Q4 beat-and-raise gap fully extended. The thesis is firmly starter->core on the second independent signal (7/1 $500M C-UAS contract through 2029 + Wedbush init, on top of the record Q4 and >$1.2B backlog); consensus stays Buy ([path]$304 avg PT, even the target cuts keep Buy/OW on timing not demand). But the add is MOOT — BP $205.5 vs the $200 cash buffer = [path]$5.5 free (QURE-sale proceeds not yet settled). So I let the winner run under its active trailing ratchet (+9.16% / $183.39) rather than force a buy I can't afford (L001). Investor day 07-08 is the next catalyst.

Rest of book re-justified, no exit flags:

• CROX +1.61% (peak +5.86%) — Baird OP $150 NA/HEYDUDE turnaround intact; trailing off, far above the -10% stop. HOLD.
• KMX -5.07% (peak +2.46%) — weakest name; Q1 FY27 beat + CEO turnaround un-refuted, no fresh fundamental crack; [path]$50.15 still above the -10% stop ([path]$47.55). Tight leash. HOLD.
• TGT -2.94% (peak +5.83%) — contested (Wolfe/Jefferies bull vs Barclays UW) but first-positive-comps-in-5-quarters bull fact un-refuted; no fresh comps/guidance break. Tight leash. HOLD.
• VRNS +16.71% (peak +18.94%) — trailing stop ACTIVE +9.47% / $39.76; price $42.39 [path]$2.6 above. Cyber/take-private thesis intact. Let it run. HOLD.
• AVAV +14.61% (peak +18.32%) — trailing stop ACTIVE +9.16% / $183.39. Core defense-tech thesis intact/strengthening. Let it run. HOLD.
• XYZ +2.90% (peak +5.52%) — Piper double-upgrade ($100 PT) fintech thesis intact; trailing off, above the -10% stop. HOLD.

No deployable cash anyway ([path]$5.5 free vs the $200 buffer, L001). Equity $1,045.61 (all-time high for the book). Held cash on purpose (L005).

DEEP 2026-07-02 [path]12:00 ET — signal sweep + no-trade (capital-constrained)

Tape / macro. June nonfarm payrolls +57k (vs [path]110-115k est), unemployment 4.2%, prior two months revised -74k. Cooling labor market revived rate-cut hopes: Dow record intraday high (+0.6%) while the Nasdaq -0.6% and semis sold off (SMH -3%, MU -3.4%, NVDA -1.2%) for a 2nd day. This is a FACTOR ROTATION into value/cyclicals and out of megacap growth (L006) — credit style-box beta honestly, don't mistake it for stock-picking alpha. RIVN +13% (raised delivery guide), TSLA -7%, F sales -10.3%.

Signal brief persisted -> logs/research/20260702T160138-signals.md (paces next DEEP).

Decision: NO NEW POSITIONS — hard capital constraint. Buying power $205.50 vs the $200 cash-buffer guardrail = only [path]$5.50 deployable. No affordable whole-share idea clears that (L001: don't let affordability masquerade as conviction). Held the full 6-name book; all re-justified, none flagged.

Position notes (re-evaluated, all HELD):

• AVAV $195.39, +16.30% (peak +18.32%, trailing ACTIVE $183.39). Thesis STRENGTHENING — beat-and-raise gap extended to fresh highs; Investor Day 7/8 is the next catalyst, carry into it (L005). Idiosyncratic strength vs a red growth tape (L003).
• VRNS $42.66, +17.44% (peak +18.94%, trailing ACTIVE $39.76). Strongest name; profit-stop locks [path]+9.5%. Growth name holding green AGAINST the rotation = idiosyncratic (L006 test passed).
• KMX $50.68, -4.07%. WEAKEST — thesis materially SOFTER: consensus PT [path]$49.46 now BELOW spot (valuation gate inverted), GPU compressed [path]$230, base broken, and red on a day its value/auto style box is UP (relative-weakness tell). Tight leash: exit next tick on any fundamental crack or a slide toward the [path]$47.55 stop. No cash to rotate it (L001).
• CROX $125.09 +2.40%, TGT $130.94 -2.59%, XYZ $78.91 +2.94% — theses intact, no fresh catalysts, holding within stops.

No orders placed. Guardrails not exercised (nothing validated). Next DEEP paced off the 16:01Z brief.

DEEP tick — signal sweep + thesis refresh, no orders (capital-constrained). Book equity $1,045.82 (+4.6% vs the $1,000 start); buying power $205.50, only [path]$5.50 over the $200 cash buffer, so no whole share is buyable — this is a research/logging tick, not a deploy tick (L001). No exit flags on any of the 6 positions.

Sweep (brief 20260702T163400): Weak June jobs (+57k, u-rate 4.2%) -> Dow record while Nasdaq/semis stay red; factor rotation into value/cyclicals (L006). Movers: TSLA -7% (despite strong deliveries), Ford -10.3% Q2 sales, RIVN raised outlook / LCID missed. Nothing new-and-affordable that beats what I already hold.

Two holdings had material catalysts today:

• AVAV +13.8% ($191.19) — the Army awarded a $500M firm-fixed-price counter-UAS contract (W912CH-26-D-A073, 07-01, thru 2029). This is precisely the second independent signal the starter thesis was waiting for (a concrete procurement win on top of the Q4 beat-and-raise, dead-on the counter-drone theme). Avg PT [path]$290. I would normally size the starter up here — but I can't add with [path]$5.50 free. Winner rides its ratcheting trailing stop (locked +9.16% / $183.39). Logged the catalyst to the news store for later citation.
• VRNS +17.2% ($42.58) — Bloomberg reports Varonis is exploring a sale with named PE suitors (Blackstone, Thoma Bravo, Vista); Q1 rev +27%, SaaS 86% of ARR. Increasingly an M&A-event trade, which is exactly why the trailing stop (locked +9.47% / $39.76) is the right governor — it banks the gain if the rumor reverses. Wouldn't chase on a rumor anyway. Hold.

Laggards on the tight leash:

• KMX -4.33% ($50.54), stop [path]$47.55 — DOWN on a green tape (relative weakness) and analyst FY26 numbers cut (rev $27.1B->$26.0B, EPS $3.88->$3.22, median PT [path]$36 now below price). No single fresh fundamental crack, [path]$3 above the stop, offsetting Q1 beat / Stephens OW $66 un-refuted — held per the prior plan: exit on the next crack, a slide toward [path]$47.55, or the hard stop.
• TGT -2.76% ($130.72), stop [path]$120.98 — Wolfe $162 / Jefferies $161 bull vs Barclays UW $91 bear standoff; load-bearing bull fact (first positive comps in 5 quarters) un-refuted. Hold, tight leash.

Steady names: CROX +2.15% ($124.79, Baird OP $150 turnaround intact), XYZ +2.50% ($78.58, Piper double-upgrade $100 GP-growth thesis intact). Both hold.

Net: the strongest development of the day (AVAV's $500M contract) is one I can only watch, not act on, because the wallet is fully deployed inside the buffer. No trades placed.

DEEP tick (13:11 ET, market open). Feed captured via MCP for agentic account [account]; equity $1045.65, buying power $205.50 ([path]$5.50 free vs the $200 cash buffer -> effectively no deployable dry powder, L001). scripts.tick returned NO exit flags.

Signal sweep (RSS macro/markets/earnings + HN + WebSearch over QUERIES; brief 20260702T171306). Macro: weak June jobs (+57k, u-rate 4.2%, labor-force participation a 50-yr low ex-COVID) -> Dow record while Nasdaq/semis soft; the value/cyclical rotation persists (L006 — credit the factor, not alpha). Today biggest movers are speculative micro-cap pumps (CWD +89%, USDE +71%) — off-thesis and not the kind of name I chase.

Position review / thesis refresh:

• CROX +1.80% (peak +5.86%, stop off) — Baird OP $150 turnaround intact. HOLD.
• KMX -4.37% (peak +2.46%) — weakest name but thesis UN-REFUTED: Morgan Stanley RAISED PT $35->$44 (EW); post-Q1 upgrade cluster stands (Stephens OW $66, Baird/RBC/Truist), new CEO Barr four-pillar plan, SG&A/unit -6.8%. TIGHT LEASH HOLD.
• TGT -3.06% (peak +5.83%) — bull case UN-REFUTED: Wolfe OP $162 top pick, Jefferies Buy $161, Guggenheim $145; first comp increase in 5 quarters, FY guide raised [path]4%. Bull/bear standoff persists (consensus Hold [path]$134). TIGHT LEASH HOLD.
• VRNS +17.29% (peak +18.94%) — trailing profit-stop ACTIVE +9.47% ($39.76), quote $42.60 well clear. PE take-private report + multi-signal cyber thesis intact. HOLD, let it run.
• AVAV +14.47% (peak +18.32%) — trailing profit-stop ACTIVE +9.16% ($183.39). 07-01 $500M Army counter-UAS contract carries into the 07-08 investor day; defense-capital theme reinforced (Quantum Systems raised $1.2B). HOLD, let it run.
• XYZ +1.64% (peak +5.52%, stop off) — Piper double-upgrade $100 fintech thesis intact. HOLD.

Action: NO sells (no exit flags, no thesis breaks) and NO buys (no deployable capital, and no on-thesis whole share is buyable anyway — refusing to force exposure, L001). Two winners (VRNS, AVAV) ride ratcheting trailing profit-stops; KMX and TGT stay on tight leashes. Updated KMX/TGT/AVAV/VRNS ticker memories.

DEEP scan (13:49 ET), 38 min after the 13:11 scan — refresh, book and tape essentially unchanged. No exit flags; nothing traded.

Signals. Pulled CNBC/markets RSS (360 items), HN, and a WebSearch movers sweep. Macro: weak June jobs -> value/cyclical rotation, Dow firm vs soft Nasdaq/semis (L006). Autos weak (TSLA -7% despite strong deliveries; Ford Q2 sales -10.3% on F-Series supplier issue; Rivian raised, Lucid missed). Today biggest gainers are all speculative micro-caps (CLRO +127%, CWD +78%, YRD/USDE stablecoin plays) — off-thesis, none affordable/appropriate.

Holdings re-justified (all HOLD, no exit flags):

• AVAV +12.9% (trailing stop $183.39) — record fiscal Q4 + 07-01 $500M counter-UAS contract; 07-08 investor day ahead. Thesis reinforced.
• VRNS +17.1% (trailing stop $39.76) — PE take-private interest (Blackstone) still live; no deal, no denial. Un-refuted.
• KMX -3.9% — MS PT $44 EW + new-CEO plan un-refuted; tight-leash HOLD.
• TGT -3.5% — Wolfe OP $162 top pick, first comp beat in 5 quarters un-refuted; tight-leash HOLD.
• CROX +1.9%, XYZ +1.4% — theses intact.

Capital. buying_power $205.50 vs $200 cash buffer -> [path]$5.50 deployable, NO whole share buyable. NO new buys (L001 affordability != conviction; L005 carry dry powder). Winners ride ratcheting trailing stops.

Brief: logs/research/20260702T175137-signals.md

DEEP scan (14:28 ET), [path]37 min after the 13:49 refresh. Tape and book essentially unchanged.

Tape. Mildly green: S&P +0.49%, Dow +0.46%, Nasdaq +0.40%, Russell 2000 -0.39% — large-cap/value firm, small-caps give back a touch after a record H1 (best small-cap first half in 35 years). Macro backdrop unchanged: weak June payrolls (+57k vs 115k cons), labor-force participation a 50-yr low; rate-cut hopes vs Fed AI-inflation hawks. Market closed Fri 07-03 (Independence Day) → long-weekend liquidity/event risk, another reason to hold dry powder (L005).

Holdings re-justified — NO exit flags:

• AVAV +13.9% (quote $191.30, trailing stop $183.39) — thesis REINFORCED. Record fiscal Q4 (rev [path]$641.6M vs [path]$557M cons, adj EPS $1.84 vs $1.47, 31% organic, [path]21.8% adj EBITDA margin), 07-01 $500M firm-fixed Army counter-UAS contract thru 2029, FY27 guide $2.125–2.225B; 07-08 NYC investor day ahead. Ride the ratcheting stop.
• VRNS +17.7% (quote $42.76, trailing stop $39.76) — PE take-private exploration live (Blackstone/Thoma Bravo/Vista), [path]3.9x EV/27 rev vs [path]7.3x peers, no definitive deal, no denial. Un-refuted; ride the stop. Won't size the rumor (L004).
• KMX -3.65% and TGT -3.25% — laggards, theses un-refuted (KMX new-CEO plan/Stephens OW $66; TGT Wolfe OP $162 top pick, first comp beat in 5 quarters). Tight-leash HOLDs.
• CROX +2.2%, XYZ +1.8% — theses intact.

Capital. buying_power $205.50 vs $200 cash buffer → [path]$5.50 deployable, NO whole share buyable; daily_headroom $500 unused. Today's biggest movers are off-thesis (RIVN +13% EV, speculative micro-caps).

Decision: NO new buys (L001 — don't let affordability masquerade as conviction; L005 — carry dry powder into the holiday). Winners ride ratcheting trailing stops; laggards on a tight leash. Nothing to do but hold.

DEEP tick — signal sweep refreshed ([path]37 min after the 14:28 ET scan), NO new orders. Fully capital-constrained: buying_power $205.50 vs the $200 cash buffer = [path]$5.50 free, so no whole share is buyable regardless of conviction (L001). Daily headroom $500 unused, deployed $0.

Tape: rotated more defensive since the last scan — S&P [path]flat (-0.01%) but NASDAQ -1.27% on a tech/semis slide; health care, staples & utilities led (S&P still 354 advancers). Soft June payrolls (+57k vs 115k cons), claims 215k. Market CLOSED Fri 07-03 (Independence Day) → long-weekend event risk, a further reason to carry dry powder into the close (L005). My book is mostly non-tech (defense, cyber, consumer, fintech), so it shrugged off the Nasdaq fade.

Holdings — all re-justified, NO exit flags:

• AVAV +13.5% vs cost (quote 190.61) — the standout, a defense name green while tech sold off. Record fiscal Q4 + $500M Army counter-UAS deal thru 2029, FY27 guide $2.125–2.225B; Wedbush/Canaccord/RBC/Stifel/Clear Street all Buy/OP. Trailing profit-stop ratcheted to +9.16% / $183.39 (quote [path]3.9% above). 07-08 NY investor day next catalyst — ride the stop.
• VRNS +17.2% (quote 42.58) — PE take-private exploration live, no definitive deal; trailing stop +9.47% / $39.76 ([path]6.6% below spot). Ride the stop.
• TGT -3.0% (quote 130.37) — tight-leash HOLD, thesis un-refuted (Wolfe OP $162 Top Pick, FY26 sales-growth raise, traffic-led comps; standoff vs Barclays $91), 3.5% yield cushions the wait. Hard stop [path]$120.98.
• KMX -3.6% (quote 50.93) — the book's weakest thesis and tightest leash. New-CEO turnaround + Stephens OW $66 un-refuted, but the bear case is real (marketbeat consensus avg PT [path]$41 below spot, margin/unit-economics concerns). No FRESH crack today → HOLD; exit trigger armed. Hard stop [path]$47.55.
• CROX +2.3% (quote 124.955) and XYZ +1.9% (quote 78.15) — quietly green, theses intact.

Book equity $1,045.54 (+4.6% vs the $1,000 start). DECISION: no new buys — no deployable cash and, per L005, carrying dry powder into the holiday is the highest-EV move anyway. Winners ride their ratcheting trailing stops; laggards stay on a tight leash into the long weekend.

DEEP tick — no new buys, book re-justified

Signals gathered: RSS (CNBC/macro/markets/earnings, 360 docs) + 3 WebSearches (AVAV catalyst, KMX/TGT news, market movers). Brief: logs/research/20260702T194201-signals.md. Tape: fractured Q3 open — semis/Mag7 mixed, S&P [path]flat ([path]7508), NASDAQ soft. My non-tech book (defense/cyber/consumer/fintech) is unaffected. Market CLOSED Fri 07-03 (Independence Day) -> long-weekend event risk.

Positions (all re-justified, NO exit flags):

• AVAV +13.5% (quote 190.62, trailing stop 183.39): +10.5% TODAY on a fresh $500M US Army counter-UAS award through 2029, stacking on the 06-30 record Q4 + Wedbush init; defense-drone sector inflows (Quantum Systems +$1.2B raise). Thesis ACCELERATING — ride the ratcheting stop, no trim. 07-08 NY investor day next.
• VRNS +17.1% (quote 42.52, stop 39.76): PE take-private exploration live, no definitive deal — ride the stop.
• KMX -3.7% (quote 50.875): base broke, but NO fresh fundamental crack. New second signal = CEO Keith Barr $498K insider buy (06-22). HOLD, tight leash, hard stop [path]47.55.
• TGT -3.1% (quote 130.23): Wolfe OP $162 Top Pick + Jefferies Buy $161 vs Barclays UW $91 standoff; first positive comps in 5 quarters un-refuted. HOLD, hard stop [path]120.98.
• CROX +2.8%, XYZ +2.7%: quietly green, theses intact.

Trade decision: NO new buys. Capital-constrained — buying_power 205.50 vs 200 cash buffer = [path]$5.50 deployable, no whole share buyable (daily_headroom 500 unused). Forcing a sub-$5 name would be affordability masquerading as conviction (L001). And L005: carry dry powder INTO the long holiday weekend rather than spend it the afternoon before. Winners ride ratcheting trailing stops; laggards on a tight leash. Ticker memory updated: AVAV, KMX.