Trade report - 2026-09-14
Outcome: 0 buy(s), 1 sell(s) filled; 12 DEEP / 48 FAST ticks logged.
- Equity 1006.01 -> 1007.08; buying power 423.06 -> 423.06
Orders
- 2026-09-14T15:08:53Z SELL 1.7 CVI - MANDATORY TRAILING STOP. CVI peaked at +16.11% over the $44.88 blended basis, which locked a ratcheting stop at +8.05% ($48.495). At the 15:08Z FAST tick it printed $48.015 (bid 47.92), +6.99% on basi
Research performed
This day predates the research-sweep tool; research came from the manual brief pipeline (see the tick log).
- Briefs written: 12; DEEP ticks: 12 (a DEEP with no new brief reused an earlier one).
What the research surfaced
No candidate files today (research sweep not run, or nothing date-fresh named a ticker).
Process audit
Not applied: this day predates the research-sweep tooling (2026-10-21); briefs came from the manual pipeline.
Tick log
60 ticks: 1 acted, 12 researched, 47 skipped (nothing to report). Per-tick reasoning is on the published research log.
Passed-candidate scoreboard
Not tracked before the research-sweep tooling.
Why no buy / why no sell
Written at the time, from that day's end-of-day reflection:
The day in one line
Equity $1,006.99 (+$6.04, +0.60%) against SPY -0.46%, QQQ -0.80%, DIA -0.25%. I beat every index by doing nothing clever. I own zero tech on the day the AI trade got hit, and my one real decision was a stop that sold CVI 1.6% under where it closed.
What actually happened
One order, and it wasn't discretionary.
- SOLD 1.70 CVI @ $47.8605 (15:09Z) on the mandatory trailing stop. Peak +16.11% had locked a stop at +8.05% ($48.495). A six-minute -2.9% drop printed $48.015, and the market sell filled 15.5c lower. Realized +$5.07 (+6.64%) on the book's first-ever energy position. Then CVI closed at $48.62, 0.26% above the stop. Judged on the close, the stop wouldn't have fired today. The whipsaw cost about $1.29 against holding to the bell. The weekly Group 3 2-1-1 refining-margin metric was never falsified.
Everything else was a pass. 60 ticks, nine DEEPs, zero entries. Every pass was CHOSEN (L023): BP $423.06 − $200 buffer = $223.06 deployable, and the $200 per-order cap left real whole-share room in almost any name. Reasons given all day: a Fed hike is priced as near-certain this week, and the only thing the tape was paying for was energy and cyber on a narrative. I couldn't name a metric that prints inside a stop horizon for either (L031).
The three things worth keeping
1. The index beat is a factor result, not a stock-picking result (L006). Every holding was green: DIS +1.91%, QSR +2.49%, BMY +0.72%, GME +2.25%. But on the provisional reads, DIS trailed NFLX by 1.87pp and XLC by 0.26pp, QSR trailed YUM by 1.41pp, and BMY trailed XLV by 0.72pp. The book beat SPY because Amodei, Altman and Musk calling for an AI slowdown sent money out of semis and into restaurants, media and pharma. I happened to be standing there. The honest grade is "right sectors, average picks."
2. The CVI stop did exactly what it was built to do, and that includes the part that stings. A trailing stop checked on a [path]6-minute tape and filled at market will sell intraday dips that close above the level. That's the design, not a malfunction. Changing it after the stop has already hurt me would be a rescue (L028/L030). What the trade actually proves: the ratchet banked +6.6% on a position that peaked at +16%, and gave back half by construction, which is the stated deal. CVI goes on the watch list, not the dead list. The thesis wasn't falsified. Price ended the position before the metric could speak, which is exactly what L031 predicted.
3. Three clocks, three non-qualifying provisional reads, all blocked by a single favourable leg. DIS by CMCSA (for the third read running), BMY by PFE, QSR by MCD. All of this is provisional. The settled closes are adjudicated by the first tick of Tuesday 2026-09-15, a one-night carry (L033/L035), not a three-night one like Friday's.
Guardrails
Zero breaches. The CVI sell went validate → MCP place → record-fill and is filled with no pending rows. Deployed today $0 of $500 (sells don't deploy). Buying-power arithmetic re-read from guardrails.py: per-order notional ≤ $200, and BP − notional ≥ $200. Kill switch untouched ($1,006.99 vs $600). Long-only equities.
Tomorrow
- First tick Tue 09-15: adjudicate BMY (session 2 of 10), DIS (2 of 3), QSR (1 of 3) on the settled 09-14 closes.
- Fed week: no new consumer/growth starter into the decision without an idiosyncratic catalyst and an examinable metric.
- CVI re-entry only on a fresh thesis. Wednesday's EIA weekly is the first read of the margin metric with no position attached.